Reviewing Section 15.5: Population and Demographics Baseline
This article is part of a series exploring the views and perspectives of youth, artists and community members working with the Melgund Integrated Nuclear Impact Assessment Project. This initiative is a climate entrepreneurship and arts-based community recreation program, developed through community consultation, engagement participation in the integrated impact assessment process for the NWMO’s proposed Deep Geological Repository for nuclear waste fuel.
What is Proposed
In Section 15.5 of the Initial Project Description, the proponent outlines the population and demographic baseline for communities situated near the proposed Deep Geological Repository (DGR). Utilizing data spanning from 1991 to 2021, the document presents historical trends and future projections up to 2046 for key municipalities including Ignace, Dryden, and Sioux Lookout, as well as several First Nations communities such as Wabigoon Lake, Eagle Lake, and Lac Seul.
The proposal highlights a divergence in demographic trajectories: non-Indigenous municipalities are generally experiencing aging populations and slower growth, while Indigenous populations are younger and growing at a faster rate. The proponent aims to use this baseline to model future infrastructure, housing, and service demands under various economic scenarios, ranging from conservative estimates to optimistic growth models driven by resource development.
Underlying Assumptions
Our analysis of the provided text identifies several critical assumptions that influence the proponent’s projections:
- Sufficiency of Federal Data: The assessment assumes that public data from Statistics Canada and Indigenous Services Canada (ISC) provides an adequate baseline for planning, despite acknowledging significant discrepancies between these two sources.
- Applicability of Provincial Averages: The “optimistic” growth scenarios for the Kenora Census Division and Ignace rely on the Ontario historical average growth rate (1.16%), assuming that remote, resource-dependent regions will mirror province-wide trends.
- In-Migration Viability: The baseline assumes that substantial in-migration can successfully offset the documented decline in local youth populations (e.g., a 53% decline in Ignace) to meet workforce requirements.
Community Assessment
Through our community engagement and technical review, we have identified specific areas of concern regarding the accuracy and implications of the data presented. A primary observation is the significant discrepancy between ISC and Statistics Canada data for on-reserve populations. For example, data for Eagle Lake and Seine River First Nations show conflicting figures. Without reconciliation, there is a risk of underestimating the actual population, which could lead to inadequate funding and planning for essential social services and infrastructure.
Furthermore, the data reveals a critical socio-economic challenge in Ignace, which has seen a 53% decline in residents aged 15-29 between 1996 and 2021. This shrinking youth demographic suggests that the DGR project will need to rely heavily on external labor. This raises concerns about the social fabric of the town and the capacity of the community to integrate a large influx of new workers while supporting an aging existing population. Additionally, the suppression of census data for Lac Des Mille Lacs First Nation due to small population sizes creates a blind spot, preventing meaningful assessment of how the project might impact that specific community.
Path Forward
To ensure the Integrated Impact Assessment is based on reality rather than statistical approximations, we recommend the following corrective measures:
- Community-Led Verification: The proponent should collaborate directly with the leadership of Wabigoon Lake Ojibway Nation, Eagle Lake First Nation, Lac Seul First Nation, Lac Des Mille Lacs First Nation, and Seine River First Nation to conduct community-led demographic surveys. This is necessary to resolve federal data discrepancies and capture off-reserve members who may return for project opportunities.
- Social Integration and Infrastructure Study: A specialized study must be commissioned to analyze the specific impacts of project-induced migration on aging communities like Ignace. This study should move beyond generic provincial averages and model local scenarios that account for the steep decline in the local youth workforce.
- Realistic Growth Modeling: Planning targets for housing and utilities should be based on growth models derived from similar remote, resource-dependent jurisdictions rather than broad provincial averages.
About the Integrated Assessment Process
The federal Impact Assessment Agency of Canada (IAAC) has formally launched the integrated impact assessment process for the proposed Deep Geological Repository (DGR) for Canada’s Used Nuclear Fuel Project, a major national infrastructure initiative led by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO).
The proposed underground repository is designed to permanently contain and isolate used nuclear fuel in a secure geological formation. Wabigoon Lake Ojibway Nation and the Township of Ignace have been selected as host communities for the project. The site is located approximately 21 kilometres southeast of Wabigoon Lake Ojibway Nation and 43 kilometres northwest of Ignace, Ontario, near Highway 17.
According to project materials, the repository would provide permanent storage for approximately 5.9 million bundles of used nuclear fuel. The full lifecycle of the project is expected to span roughly 160 years, including site preparation, construction, operations, closure, and long-term monitoring.
Integrated Federal Review
Major nuclear projects in Canada are subject to an integrated assessment process jointly led by the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada and the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC). This “one project, one review” approach is intended to streamline regulatory oversight while ensuring rigorous evaluation of environmental, health, social, economic, and Indigenous rights impacts.
Under this framework, IAAC oversees the impact assessment requirements under the Impact Assessment Act, while the CNSC regulates nuclear safety under the Nuclear Safety and Control Act. The CNSC will issue the initial site preparation licence and manage all subsequent nuclear licensing for the project’s duration.
The integrated assessment also includes a focus on potential impacts on Indigenous Peoples, including rights, land use, cultural practices, health, and socio-economic conditions. Where potential adverse effects are identified, the process is intended to identify mitigation measures to reduce or avoid harm.
Public Comment Period Now Open
The first public comment period for the project is currently open and will run until February 4, 2026. During this phase, the public is invited to provide feedback on the Summary of the Initial Project Description submitted by the NWMO. Submissions received during this period will inform IAAC’s summary of issues, which will guide the next stages of the impact assessment. All comments submitted become part of the public project record and are posted to the federal Impact Assessment Registry.
This plain-language summary is provided by ECO-STAR North and Art Borups Corners to support public engagement.
Disclaimer: The views and perspectives expressed in this article are solely those of the independent arts program led by ECO-STAR North and Art Borups Corners. They do not reflect the official positions of the Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO) or the Government of Canada.
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